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The image below compares the Arctic sea ice thickness on July 14, 2012 (left panel) and on July 14, 2015 (right panel), using Naval Research Laboratory images. The Naval Research Laboratory's 30-day animation below shows how this situation developed, ending with a forecast for July 17, 2015, run on July 9, 2015. The dramatic decline of the sea ice, especially north of North America, is the result of a combination of factors, including: very high levels of greenhouse gases over the Arctic Ocean very high levels of ocean heat  heatwaves over North America and Siberia extending high air temperatures over the Arctic Ocean wildfires triggered by these heatwaves resulting in darkening compounds settling on snow and ice very warm river water running into the Arctic Ocean, as illustrated by the image below.   With still two months of melting to go before the sea ice can be expected to reach its minimum for 2015, the threat of sea ice collapse is ominous. The Arctic-News Blog has been ...

Earlier this month, the jet stream was forecast to move over the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia on July 8, 2015, 12:00 UTC, in one, strong, long stream of wind, as discussed in the previous post  and depicted below. The situation has meanwhile been adjusted in a more recent forecast. This recent forecast shows the jet stream getting fractured over Siberia on July 8, 2015, 12:00 UTC, resulting in a sequence of vertical wind streams. This is a new development, rather unknown to the forecasting model that works on the basis of the jet stream flowing horizontally in one strong and narrow stream around the globe. A further forecast has been added in the bottom panel, i.e. for July 12, 2015, 12:00 UTC, showing the jet stream moving well over the Arctic Ocean in two places, over the East Siberian Sea and over the Canadian Archipelago. Fracturing of the jet stream and alignment along longitude, rather than latitude, is a worrying development. It is the most extreme form of what is described...

The image below illustrates the intensity of the heatwave over western Europe, with temperatures forecast to keep hitting the top end of the scale for days to come. Global warming is strengthening heatwaves. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world, so the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator is getting smaller. It is this temperature difference that powers the jet stream. The result is that the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates the globe is falling. Furthermore, the path of the jet stream is changing, sometimes extending far to the north, then deeper to the south, just like a river will meander more where the land is flatter. Above image illustrates that these changes to the jet stream make that warm air from the south can more easily move up north, to higher latitudes, while cold air from the Arctic can more easily move down to lower latitudes, in both cases further decreasing the temperature difference between the North Pole and th...

The image below illustrates the dramatic fall in sea ice thickness (in m) in the Beaufort Sea over the past month. The left panel shows sea ice thickness on May 29, 2015, and the panel on the right shows sea ice thickness on June 29, 2015. The 30-day animation below further illustrates this dramatic fall in sea ice thickness (from June 8-29, with forecast up to July 7, 2015). Another perspective is sea ice concentration. The image below shows the high concentration back on May 1, 2015. The 30-day animation below shows the dramatic fall in sea ice concentration (from June 8-29, with forecast up to July 7, 2015). Below an interview by Judy Sole with Professor Peter Wadhams , held May 15, 2015, and entitled 'Our time is running out - The Arctic sea ice is going!' Meanwhile, very high temperatures keep showing up within the Arctic Circle . On July 1, 2015, a temperature of 36°C (96.8°F) was reached near the Kolyma River that ends in the East Siberian Sea , as illustrated by the im...

Warming in the Arctic is accelerating. On June 25, 2015, high temperatures hit North America. Temperatures as high as 30.3°C (86.54°F) were recorded where the Mackenzie River is flowing into the Arctic Ocean. June 25, 2015 - High temperatures over North America, close to the Arctic Ocean On July 1, 2015, temperatures are forecast to be as high as 111.4°F (or 44.1°C) near Chico, north of San Francisco. Temperatures are forecast to be high over most of North America and Eastern Siberia, threatening to further warm up waters of the Arctic Ocean. Forecast for July 1, 2015 -  High temperatures over North America, close to the Arctic Ocean The image below shows that on June 27, 2015, temperatures of well over 40°C (104°F) were recorded in Europe and in Pakistan, where temperatures earlier this month had reached 49°C (120.2°F) in some places. The heat wave reportedly killed 1233 people in Karachi alone. This in addition to the 2500 people killed earlier in India by high t...

The image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Arctic as at June 9, 2015. The image below shows the Arctic from a 180° rotated angle, while also showing the high sea surface temperature anomalies that are so prominent in the North Pacific (note also that the scale of sea surface temperature anomalies differs). One may wonder why sea surface temperature anomalies below zero are visible in the North Atlantic, given that ocean heat is rising rapidly. As the IPCC said in AR5, more than 60% of the net energy increase in the climate system is stored in the upper ocean (0–700 m) during the relatively well-sampled 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, and about 30% is stored in the ocean below 700 m. Global heat content at 0-2000 m is rising even faster than at 0-700 m  The image below further pictures the situation as at June 9, 2015, with large blue and purple areas showing in the North Atlantic where meltwater from the Arctic has spread over time. Indeed, the accumulat...