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November 2017 was 0.87 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean 1951-1980 November temperature, as above image shows. The last three Novembers — 2015, 2016, and 2017 — are the three warmest in the entire modern record. The warmest month of November happened in 2015 (+1.03°C) when there was a strong El Niño , while we're currently in a La Niña period. On the image below, cyclonic winds on December 21, 2017, are visible near the Philippines and Vietnam. Near the Philippines, 3-hour precipitation accumulation was as high as 121.6 mm or 4.79 in (at green circle). As a BBC report describes, Tropical Storm Tembin made landfall in the southern Philippines on December 22, 2017, causing flash flooding and mudslides. More than 180 people are reported to have been killed, as the tropical storm swept through Mindanao island, with dozens more missing. A week earlier, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak hit the central Philippines, killing dozens. The region is still recovering from Typhoon Haiyan, which kill...

New mandatory evacuation orders have been issued for the areas of Montecito, Summerland and some parts of Santa Barbara city, emergency officials said. Above graph shows carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels from December 5 - 20, 2017, while the map below shows the location of the measurements (and forecasts). The graph shows levels at one location and for one time of day (00:00 UTC for CO, respectively 01:30 UTC for CO₂). On December 11, 2017, at this location, but at 22:30 UTC, CO levels were 55639 ppb and CO₂ levels were 898 ppm, as illustrated the combination image below (left panel). The right panel of the image below shows that CO₂ levels were as high as 922 ppm on December 7, 2017, at 01:30 UTC at a slightly different location. No CO₂ measurements were available for December 9 and 10, 2017, but given that levels of CO₂ and CO typically go up and down hand in hand, CO₂ may have peaked at well over 1000 ppm on December 9, 2017, possibly exceeding the 1...

Warming is accelerating. For some time, it has been warmer than the 1.5°C guardrail that the Paris Agreement promised should not be crossed. This conclusion follows from above analysis of NASA land+ocean data 1880-October 2017, adjusted by 0.59°C to cater for the rise from preindustrial and with a trend added that also indicates that the global temperature look set to cross the 2°C guardrail soon, with 2021 falling within the margins of the trend line. [ click on images to enlarge ] The trend line shows a strong and ominous direction upward. Nonetheless, the situation could be even more dire than this trend indicates, since some warming elements are not fully incorporated in these data. As an example, the NASA data look at the temperature at the surface of the oceans, which has increased strongly, as also illustrated by the image on the right. Much warming has also occurred below the sea surface, while there has been some cooling of the sea surface. Moreover, ocean heat has also increa...

The image below, a forecast for October 8, 2017, run on October 7, shows Hurricane Nate near New Orleans, with winds as fast as 83 mph or 134 km/h (at 850 mb) and up to 5.33 in or 135.4 mm (3-hour precipitation accumulation) of rain (at the green circle). Early forecast also showed as much as 6.1 in or 154.9 mm of rain (3-hour precipitation accumulation) hitting the Mississippi coast. The NOAA image below also shows the track over North America as forecast over the next few days. Nate, the fourth major storm to strike the United States in less than two months, killed at least 30 people in Central America before entering the warm waters of the Gulf and bearing down on the U.S. South ( Reuters report ). One of the biggest dangers is storm surge flooding, as illustrated by above image and the  tweet below. 7-11 ft storm surge on the MS Gulf Coast and open water coast in SE LA from #Nate . I’m 6ft 6 in. This pole is 11 ft. Some perspective. pic.twitter.com/kisGyATz13 — Ken Graham (...

By Sam Carana, with contributions by Jennifer Francis Global warming is increasing the strength of hurricanes. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor and sea surface temperatures are rising. Both of these changes strengthen hurricanes. Steering winds may also be changing, causing unusual hurricane tracks such as Sandy's left turn into the mid-Atlantic seaboard and Harvey's stagnation over Houston. Is rapid Arctic warming playing a role? Jennifer Francis has long been warning that global warming is increasing the likelihood of wavier jet stream patterns and more frequent blocking events, both of which have been observed. The Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the world. The narrowing temperature difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes is weakening the speed at which the jet stream circumnavigates Earth and may be making the jet stream more wavy. In a 2012 study, Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus warned that this makes atmospheric blocking events in t...

Extreme weather is upon us. Global warming is increasing the intensity, occurrence, size, duration and impact of many catastrophic events, including wildfires, droughts, heat waves, cold snaps, storms, lightning, flooding and seismic events such as earthquakes and associated tsunamis. Ever larger numbers of people are getting hit directly by such events, as well as indirectly due to lack of fresh water, food, shelter, medicine, health care and emergency services. Many lives were lost and many further lives are at stake. In a September 11, 2017, statement, AccuWeather predicts the joint economic costs of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma to be $290 billion, or 1.5% of the U.S. GDP. The following three images show Hurricane Irma (left) and Hurricane Jose (right), and are forecasts for September 10, 2017. The image directly below shows that waves are forecast to be as high as 48 ft (or 14.63 m). Waves for September 10, 2017, 15:00 UTC (at green circle, 26°N, 80°W) are forecast as high ...